Oceans Reveal Irreversible Climate Acceleration, Threatening Agriculture

Original source: Sobrevivir al Descalabro
This article is an editorial summary and interpretation of that content. The ideas belong to the original authors; the selection and writing are by Streamed.News.

This video from Sobrevivir al Descalabro covered a lot of ground. 6 segments stood out as worth your time. Everything below links directly to the timestamp in the original video.

Did you know that accelerated changes in our oceans are not only redefining the global climate but also directly threatening the foundation of our food supply and the stability of the seasons we take for granted?

Oceans Reveal Irreversible Climate Acceleration, Threatening Agriculture

Antonio Turiel, an expert in satellite oceanography, has identified an alarming acceleration in ocean warming and other variables since 2016. This trend, observed in temperature, salinity, and sea level, suggests irreversible climate destabilization. According to Turiel, these profound changes in the oceanic system, which has historically absorbed much of Earth's heat, could drastically alter atmospheric circulation patterns.

The most critical implication of this destabilization is the potential disappearance of predictable seasonal patterns, a fundamental pillar for agriculture since the Holocene. Extreme phenomena, such as the collapse of the polar vortex seen in Texas, where temperatures dropped below those of Alaska, could become recurrent, ending humanity's ability to reliably grow food. This scenario emerges at a time when civilization has limited resources to face a crisis of such magnitude.

"The destabilization, this loss of seasonal patterns, could mean the end of agriculture."

▶ Watch this segment — 1:11:53

Low Solar Panel EROI Questions Feasibility of Total Energy Transition

The Energy Return on Investment (EROI), which measures the energy obtained versus the energy required to produce it, is a crucial factor for social sustainability. Expert Antonio Turiel, citing Charles A.S. Hall and Pedro Prieto, vice president of the Association for the Study of Energy Resources, points out that a stable industrial society requires a minimum EROI of 10. However, current solar panels have an EROI of approximately 2.5.

This low figure implies that, although solar panels can be profitable in specific applications and with current low costs, a total reliance on them as the primary large-scale energy source could lead to social collapse. Historically, societies that have depended on low-yield energy sources have seen their social safety nets deteriorate and their populations become more vulnerable, even resorting to conditions of slavery or semi-slavery.

"Tying a society to such low-yield sources… we know the answer to that question: societies that use low-yield sources suffer a deterioration of their social safety net, their population becomes vulnerable."

▶ Watch this segment — 22:04

Global Oil Production Peaked in 2018, Divestment Prevents Reversal

Global oil production reached its historical maximum in December 2018, a peak that, according to expert Antonio Turiel, cannot be reversed. This irreversibility is due to the massive divestment by oil companies since 2014, a process that takes years and, given the time needed to exploit new reserves (between 7 and 10 years), makes it impossible to reverse the current declining trend. Scarcity and rising energy prices are now inevitable.

The situation is critical: in 2014, with oil at $110 a barrel, the 127 largest oil and gas companies lost $110 billion. This data highlights that, even at historically high prices, extracting remaining reserves is not profitable, hindering any incentive to increase production. Turiel predicts that, starting in 2025, the global system will face an energy shortage that will prevent current operations, leading to a "horrendous crisis" in the next five years, as "the system cannot function without oil."

"The global system will begin to suffer such an energy shortage that from 2025 onwards it will collapse in the movement of goods."

▶ Watch this segment — 11:23

New Green Deal Could Perpetuate Energy Neocolonialism in the Global South

The proposed energy transition of the "Green New Deal" and similar initiatives risk perpetuating a model of neocolonial extractivism in countries of the Global South, according to Antonio Turiel. This new wave of energy colonialism would manifest in the need to secure the supply of critical raw materials, such as uranium from Niger for nuclear power plants or cobalt from Congo for electric vehicle batteries, a sector under immense growth pressure.

A prime example is Europe's ambition to import green hydrogen from Africa. Turiel highlights the Inga Dam project in Congo, where the German government and German investors seek to produce hydrogen through electrolysis for export to Europe, compensating for internal production shortfalls. This model, while presented as "green," could impose a new form of servitude on underdeveloped countries, depriving them of energy resources they could use for their own industrial and social development.

"The idea is the same: to continue pushing something that, under the 'green' label, fundamentally reproduces the same old colonial extractivism; it's just that the objects of desire change."

▶ Watch this segment — 1:07:07

Transition to Renewables Implies Drastic Drop in Energy Consumption and End of Current Capitalism

A complete transition to renewable energies is inevitable as fossil fuels decline, but it will not be able to replace the current level of energy consumption, according to Antonio Turiel. Citing the System Dynamics group at the University of Valladolid (Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, and Luis Javier Miguel), it is estimated that, even in a scenario of perfect global cooperation, only about 40% of the energy society consumes today could be captured.

This drastic reduction in energy consumption implies fundamental changes in current habits and lifestyles, something Turiel considers incompatible with the capitalist system. The incompatibility arises not only from the high costs of renewable infrastructure but also from the need to adapt to natural rhythms (sun, wind, water), which contrasts with capitalism's logic of unlimited growth and continuous resource exploitation. Society, therefore, will be forced to accept a reality of lower consumption and greater restrictions.

"The energy transition is incompatible with capitalism, because a system based on renewables... has to live in harmony with the rhythms of nature."

▶ Watch this segment — 36:29

Germany's 'Energiewende' Failed to Cut Emissions While France Struggles for Nuclear Uranium

Germany's 'Energiewende,' initiated at the beginning of the 21st century with the goal of decarbonizing the country, has not succeeded in significantly reducing its CO2 emissions; they remain at similar levels to its start. According to Antonio Turiel, Germany's policy of closing nuclear power plants resulted in an increase in coal consumption, frustrating climate goals and raising electricity prices. This occurred despite a massive push for renewables, which has not achieved a real reduction in coal use.

In contrast, France, traditionally dependent on nuclear energy, now faces serious uranium supply problems, a resource whose global production peaked around 2016-2017 and is projected to decline rapidly. Uranium scarcity, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts in areas like Niger and Mali, has forced President Emmanuel Macron to announce a plan for a transition to renewable energies. This unexpected shift reveals the intrinsic challenges of energy sustainability, even for nations with well-established nuclear strategies.

"When you realize that nuclear energy is one of the low-CO2 emission energies... for fulfilling climate commitments, and you have uranium supply problems, well, that forces you into a renewable transition plan."

▶ Watch this segment — 1:00:37

Also mentioned in this video

• Antonio Turiel, investigador científico del CSIC, se dedica a la oceanografía… (0:25)
• La producción de petróleo alcanzó su máximo en 2018 y desde entonces ha estado… (1:02)
• El modelo económico actual basado en el crecimiento constante es insostenible… (2:57)
• Existe una estrecha relación entre el consumo de energía y el crecimiento del… (4:41)
• Existe una negativa de políticos y economistas a abordar la escasez de energía… (7:02)
• El petróleo, especialmente el diésel, es el pilar de nuestro sistema… (9:54)
• Después de 2025, la situación de escasez de petróleo barato y versátil será… (14:52)
• El pico de producción y el subsiguiente declive afectan a todos los materiales… (16:46)
• La escasez de petróleo también afectará la producción de metales como el cobre,… (19:28)
• Aunque la energía eólica e hidroeléctrica pueden tener EROIs más altos (10-20),… (25:52)
• El orador critica la fe ciega en el progreso científico y los milagros,… (27:47)
• Se critica el uso ideológico de la ciencia y el mito del progreso ilimitado,… (33:05)
• El Green New Deal, según el ponente, es una forma de neocolonialismo energético… (41:48)
• Los fondos Next Generation EU, con 140.000 millones de euros para España,… (46:46)
• La transición a un sistema 100% eléctrico es problemática, ya que la… (52:27)
• Las propuestas de energía renovable no eléctrica, aunque más eficientes… (56:53)

Summarised from Sobrevivir al Descalabro · 1:21:30. All credit belongs to the original creators. Streamed.News summarises publicly available video content.