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Iran Faces Daily $140 Million Losses Due to Economic Blockade and Hyperinflation

Iran Faces Daily $140 Million Losses Due to Economic Blockade and Hyperinflation

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Original source: AHORA PLAY
This article is an editorial summary and interpretation of that content. The ideas belong to the original authors; the selection and writing are by Streamed.News.


This video from AHORA PLAY covered a lot of ground. 6 segments stood out as worth your time. Everything below links directly to the timestamp in the original video.

Understanding the economic impact of the blockade on Iran helps to gauge the tools of international pressure and their direct consequences on the daily lives and stability of a nation.


Iran Faces Daily $140 Million Losses Due to Economic Blockade and Hyperinflation

Economic analyst Martín Genero detailed that Iran is confronting a severe economic crisis, losing approximately $140 million daily due to a fall in its exports of oil, petrochemical products, and other non-oil goods. This blockade not only prevents foreign sales but also restricts the import of essential supplies, worsening the internal situation. The Iranian currency, the Rial, has experienced a drastic devaluation, plummeting from 42,000 Rials per dollar before the conflict to 1.5 million per dollar, while overall inflation reaches 47.5%, indicative of an economic and monetary collapse.

Iran's inability to trade freely and the consequent terminal hyperinflation of its currency, according to the analysis, drastically complicate the country's capacity to sustain its economy and meet the basic needs of its population. These economic pressures aim to force greater flexibility in international negotiations but, in turn, exacerbate internal instability and social discontent, with measures such as limiting daily bank withdrawals.

"The truth is they're getting off pretty lightly for the mess they're in, but the Rial, the Iranian currency, would enter terminal hyperinflation."

▶ Watch this segment — 27:10


Strait of Hormuz Blockade Costs Iran $435 Million Daily, Says Former US Official

Martín Genero, citing Milad Malequi, former associate director of the Office of Global Targeting at the U.S. Treasury Department, revealed that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman is costing Iran an estimated $435 million per day, totaling $13 billion monthly. Malequi, who oversaw sanctions and programs against Iran, explained that 90% of Iranian maritime trade occurs through its southern exit via the Persian Gulf, making it extremely vulnerable to these restrictions.

This strategy of economic siege, designed in part by experts like Malequi, aims to strangle Tehran's finances. Although Iran has access to the Caspian Sea to the north, this does not offer a viable alternative for its vast international trade, leaving the country dependent on the now-blockaded southern maritime routes. The dispute also stems from other Persian Gulf countries arguing that the Strait of Hormuz is not solely Iranian sovereign territory, and thus Iran cannot levy tolls.

"The blockade of the strait costs Iran $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month."

▶ Watch this segment — 24:07


Analysts Warn of Transitory Dollar Supply in Argentina Amid Persistent Demand

Economic analysts in Argentina indicate that the country is experiencing a transitory inflow of dollars, driven by the issuance of Corporate Bonds (Obligaciones Negociables - ON) and a "superharvest" of grains. However, signs of a chronic dollar demand from Argentines persist, including about five years of untransferred profits and dividends by multinationals, of which $1 billion have already been remitted in the first quarter. Despite record dollar purchases by the Central Bank, which reached $457 million on a recent day, the price of the 'Contado Con Liquidación' (CCL) dollar remains 6% more expensive than the official rate, reflecting significant repressed demand.

Argentina's exchange rate stability in the second half of the year will critically depend on the government's ability to reduce country risk below 400 points, thereby enabling it to issue debt in international markets. If this "moderately permanent" source of financing is not achieved, the exchange rate scenario could become complicated once the seasonal supply of exports diminishes, exposing the persistent need for dollars within the local economy.

"There is a repressed demand for dollars, no doubt. And what is that repressed demand for dollars? Well, five years of untransferred profits and dividends from multinationals."

▶ Watch this segment — 50:39


Esteban Actis: Trump Seeks 'Strangulation Blockade' in Hormuz to Pressure Iran

Professor Esteban Actis explained that the Trump administration aims to regain the initiative in the conflict with Iran through a strategy of a "strangulation blockade" in the Strait of Hormuz. This tactic seeks to de-mine Omani waters and force Iran to be more flexible in diplomatic negotiations, which have been unfruitful. Actis highlighted that Iran had mined much of the strait, compelling maritime traffic to pass through its sovereign waters and pay tolls, a crucial source of funding.

The "War of Hormuz" has transformed a free navigation strait into a paralyzed zone, which benefits Iran. The U.S. strategy seeks to reverse this situation, not only by dismantling Iran's mines and its capacity to collect tolls but also by involving countries like China in pressuring Tehran to yield its positions and reopen negotiations.

"What Trump is trying to do is a strangulation blockade; he's trying to de-mine what Iran has mined."

▶ Watch this segment — 1:18:03


Argentina Faces Transitory Dollar Supply Despite Central Bank Reserve Accumulation

The presenter and Martín Genero analyzed Argentina's economic situation, noting that the Central Bank is accumulating dollars at a pace that could exceed the IMF's reserve target, driven by an agricultural "superharvest" and an exceptional increase in oil, gas, and mining exports. However, they warn that this dollar supply is transitory. Despite Morgan Stanley projecting that the BCRA will accumulate $6 billion in reserves this year, Argentines' underlying demand for dollars persists unresolved, as demonstrated by pressure in the 'Contado Con Liquidación' (CCL) market.

The sustainability of this dollar bonanza is key for the Milei government, which aims to refinance significant debt maturities in July and January of next year. If country risk does not fall significantly (below 400 points) to allow for international debt issuance, the economic program could face serious complications in the second half of the year, once the seasonal dollar supply diminishes and chronic demand once again takes center stage.

"Here we are seeing an exceptional, transitory dollar supply, and for now, we are not seeing a reversal in the permanent demand for dollars from Argentines without capital controls."

▶ Watch this segment — 43:52


Milei Government Navigates 'Best Seasonal Moment' for Dollar, But Argentina's Chronic Dollarization Persists

Martín Genero and the presenter assert that Javier Milei's government is in the "best seasonal moment" for the exchange market, covering the best year and quarter within the second half of his term. However, they warn that any economic plan in Argentina must coexist with the citizens' "chronic dollarization," where the peso is used for daily transactions and the dollar as a store of value, a reality the president himself has acknowledged. Currently, the real interest rate against inflation is strongly negative, which does not contribute to the long-term strengthening of the peso.

The transitory dollar supply, driven by exceptional factors such as the harvest and energy exports, is expected to retract in July or August, exposing the permanent demand for foreign currency. While the government is aggressively buying all available dollars to accumulate reserves, the lack of a positive real rate against inflation poses a challenge to building confidence in the local currency, crucial for sustained stabilization, as seen in experiences from other countries like Brazil and Chile.

"Any economic plan in Argentina will have to coexist with the chronic, high, monthly dollarization among Argentines."

▶ Watch this segment — 1:02:07


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Summarised from AHORA PLAY · 2:03:12. All credit belongs to the original creators. Streamed.News summarises publicly available video content.

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