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Original source: Asociación Valle Tegueste
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Did you know that global warming is not just progressing, but accelerating at an alarming rate, with projections that could render a large part of the planet uninhabitable within decades? This analysis details the reasons behind this alarming progression and its drastic consequences.
Global Warming Accelerates Drastically: Planet's Radiation Imbalance Quadruples
Global warming has accelerated dramatically, with the planet's radiation imbalance quadrupling since 2004, according to NASA satellite measurements. This phenomenon, where Earth absorbs four times more radiation than it emits, is attributed to a reduction in sulfur dioxide pollution in China. The decrease in these particles, which previously reflected sunlight, has revealed that greenhouse gases are considerably more potent than estimated.
Projections by researchers such as Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, based on this new imbalance, indicate that Earth will reach 2 degrees Celsius of warming by 2037 and 3 degrees by 2060. At 3 degrees, 60% of the planet would become uninhabitable, with regions like the Iberian Peninsula experiencing summer temperatures exceeding 60 degrees Celsius. The speaker notes that President Donald Trump's decision to defund data from these NASA satellites is a "not very scientific position."
"The planet's greenhouse gases are quite, quite a bit more potent than we thought, and now we are facing much faster and larger-magnitude warming than we anticipated."
Investment in New Oil Fields Halves Since 2014
Oil companies' investment in the exploration and development of new oil fields has halved since 2014, revealing a growing scarcity of oil and gas. This decline is due to discoveries becoming smaller, lower quality, and more costly to exploit. Companies like Repsol and Cepsa have closed their exploration departments, focusing only on existing fields.
A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) underscores this alarming trend, showing that over the past five years, the world has discovered only 3 billion barrels of oil annually, while consumption amounts to 36 billion barrels each year. This disproportion, where 12 times more is consumed than found, indicates that current production relies on fields discovered more than 50 years ago, many of which have already surpassed their extraction peak.
"Around 3 billion barrels are discovered globally each year, but 36 billion barrels are consumed annually, 12 times more."
84.5% of Global Primary Energy Comes from Sources in Terminal Decline Without Substitutes
84.5% of global primary energy, derived from oil, coal, gas, and uranium, is in a phase of terminal decline with no viable substitutes in sight. This reality translates into a progressive decrease in society's available "energy income," directly affecting global production and consumption capacity.
This depletion does not imply a sudden disappearance of resources, but rather progressively diminishing extraction, which will lead to an escalation of international conflict due to increasing competition for scarce resources. The situation is comparable to that of a person whose salary is reduced annually, forcing them to stop doing things and face increasing economic difficulties.
"The energy sources that are producing 84.5% of the primary energy consumed globally... are approaching the point where they will begin a process of terminal decline, and we truly have no substitutes for them."
Expert States Capitalism is Unviable, Urges Planned Degrowth
The energy transition is an urgent and inevitable necessity, but the current industrial electrical model is failing, generating environmental and social problems without achieving effective substitution. Faced with this reality, capital is being redirected towards biomass, while energy becomes increasingly expensive and scarce. This demands a drastic decrease in society's "metabolic activity" and a radical shift in cultural values.
The speaker argues that capitalism, being oriented towards infinite growth on a finite planet, is unviable. Quoting Edward Abbey, he compares growth for growth's sake to the "ideology of a tumor." The only real solution to current problems is planned and democratic "degrowth," which allows for managing the inevitable energetic and environmental reduction. Ignoring this reality, according to the expert, only leads to impoverishment and the destruction of the middle class, as already observed in rising rental prices and job precarity.
"Capitalism is unviable. Capitalism is an economic system geared towards infinite growth on a planet... to grow for growth's sake is the ideology of a tumor."
▶ Watch this segment — 1:04:10
Global Temperature Exceeds Paris Agreement Pre-Industrial Limit by 1.6 Degrees
The global average temperature over the last 365 days has reached 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, already surpassing the 1.5-degree limit established in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This alarming increase, corroborated by meteorological station data and numerical models, shows an acceleration in the warming trend that has noticeably intensified in recent years, with 2023 and 2024 recording the highest temperatures.
The situation is even more critical in specific regions such as the Canary Islands, where warming exceeds 2.3 or 2.4 degrees Celsius, and on the Iberian Peninsula, which is approaching 2.7 degrees. These temperature rises are already causing phenomena such as scorching nights and maximum summer temperatures of 45 degrees Celsius. Projections indicate that the planet will reach 2 degrees of warming in the coming years, leading to temperatures of up to 50 degrees Celsius in some areas of the peninsula, considered incompatible with human life.
"Currently, the planet's average temperature over the last 365 days is 1.6 degrees above the pre-industrial baseline."
Oil and Gas Production to Halve in 25 Years Without New Discoveries
Global oil and gas production could be halved in the next 25 years if there is no investment in the discovery and development of new fields, according to a report by the International Energy Agency. The current trend shows that, even with improvements to existing wells, annual production will be drastically diminished, as new reserve discoveries are increasingly smaller and existing fields are in decline due to depletion.
Although the United States has managed to temporarily increase its oil production, primarily through fracking, driven by political decisions such as those by President Donald Trump to maintain low gasoline prices before elections, this strategy rapidly depletes reserves. A very rapid decline in U.S. production is expected starting in 2026, as the cushion of reserve wells will be running out. The rest of the world, excluding the U.S., is already in a process of productive decline.
"Starting in 2026, this will experience a very rapid decline because we are running out of the cushion of wells that was available to try and keep the situation under control."
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Summarised from Asociación Valle Tegueste · 1:10:41. All credit belongs to the original creators. Streamed.News summarises publicly available video content.
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