— Summaries of Nate Hagens' work on systems thinking, biophysical economics, and global challenges, often from his 'The Great Simplification' podcast. —
A framework built on two intersecting axes — whether the global economy grows or contracts from current levels of energy throughput, and whether that trajectory moves toward or further into ecological overshoot — generates four distinct directional scenarios: Green Growth, in which expansion couples
Complex systems face a critical danger termed 'shortfall risk,' which describes situations where an essential element falls below a threshold from which it cannot easily recover. Unlike financial losses that are typically reversible, shortfalls in areas such as grid stability, food system reliabilit
In large-scale societies, power undergoes a process termed "hierarchy drift," detaching from individual contribution and becoming persistent across generations. Unlike small groups where authority was temporary and contextual, the ability to store surplus allows power to endure, shifting selection p
The highest tier of consumption, termed 'escape and dopamine sinks,' functions as a form of anesthesia and dissociation, driven by a deep, restless unease in modern society. This category includes behaviors such as gambling, 'doom scrolling,' binge shopping, and substance use. These activities are o
Paul Kingsnorth, writing with the precision of a poet and the scope of a civilizational critic, frames industrial modernity as a machine that converts living creatures into interchangeable components. The argument, anchored in a Wendell Berry observation about the forced choice between being a creat